All things FIFA World Cup- fun facts, what’s next for the Socceroos and quant predictions…

Nina Kazmierczak- Partner and Principal Adviser
Sovereign Wealth Partners

 

With the 2018 FIFA World Cup kicking off in Russia this month, it is only fitting to highlight some fun facts on the sport dominating TV screens all over the world.

Fun Facts:

  • 3.2 billion people (almost half of the world’s population) tuned in to watch the 2014 World Cup.
  • The World Cup has been played 20 times, Brazil holds the most titles with five. Italy and Germany are close behind with four each.
  • The highest scoring game in World Cup history was in 1954, when Austria defeated Switzerland 7-5.
  • The first World Cup was played in 1930. Uruguay was both the tournament host and winner that year.
  • The oldest goal scorer in the World Cup was Roger Milla, who was 42 in 1994 when he scored a goal for Cameroon against Russia.
  • One of the venues for the 2018 World Cup, Fisht Stadium in Sochi, is the same stadium that hosted the opening and closing ceremonies at the 2014 Winter Games
  • The average attendance per game at the 2014 World Cup was over 53,000 fans!
  • Of all countries that have appeared in the World Cup, Indonesia has played the least number of matches – just one in 1938.
  • While 32 teams will qualify for the 2018 tournament, the number will jump to 48 in 2026.
  • Mexico has the most World Cup losses (25), though they do also have 14 wins and 14 draws.
  • The most goals ever scored by one player in a World Cup match is an impressive 5, by Oleg Salenko of Russia.
  • The distance between the easternmost host city (Ekaterinburg) and the westernmost host city (Kaliningrad) at the 2018 World Cup is over 2,415 kms. For comparison, that’s about the same distance as Moscow to London.
  • The World Cup winning country is rumored to see a baby boom 9 months after the World Cup. In fact, Hyundai even created a commercial based on this fact.

 

What’s next for the Socceroos:

Cheer loud on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (12am) for the Socceroos, as they face Peru. Regardless of  a win over Peru, their destiny is no longer in their own hands. The following outlines what needs to happen for the Socceroos to proceed into the next round:

1. AUSTRALIA DEFEAT PERU
A win over the South Americans would give the Soccerros four points, drawing them level with Denmark.

2. FRANCE DEFEAT DENMARK
Should the French clean sweep the group, they’ll finish with nine points, and restrict Denmark to four points.

3. TALLY THE GOALS
If the above results occur, Australia will qualify on goal difference with a win of more than one goal. However!!!…

If Australia win by one, it will come down to how many goals Denmark lose to France by. Two or more and the Socceroos are through. If Denmark only lose by one goal it comes down to goals scored. Given both the Danes and the Socceroos have two goals each, it’s a match-day three shootout.

4. TALLY THE CARDS
If the two teams still can’t be separated, it comes down to disciplinary record. The number of yellow cards and red cards will be counted, with a different point value for yellow and red cards. Australia have a slight edge here: the Danes have been issued four yellow cards; the Socceroos just three.

If the teams still can’t be separated, lots are drawn. Two balls go in a pot: the one that gets pulled out stays on, the other goes home. Not ideal!

 

The crystal ball – 

Lastly, with a successful prediction of Germany claiming victory in the 2014 World Cup, we attached the Macquarie Group research team quant model predictions. The team have turned their modelling efforts to the world
game and attempt to forecast the outcome of this year’s tournament. So what does the crystal ball say? Click here for the full analysis.

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