The US presidential election: Implications for investors

Dr Shane Oliver

Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist,  AMP Capital


The 8 November US Presidential election is looming as a significant event for investors (and the world) given the “policies” of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The smoothest outcome for investors would be a Clinton victory but Republicans continuing to control the House of Representatives, ie, more of the same.  But the election outcome is now close. Some of Trump’s economic policies make sense and could be positive for the US economy and shares but this would rely on Congress checking his more radical policies (particularly on trade, immigration and foreign policy).

US election risk is consistent with our view the next few months are likely to remain volatile for investors, even though the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up.

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